Solana · pump.fun · measured, with a control group
Everyone sells you "smart money bought this token". Nobody shows what the same measurement does on random wallets. We ran both over 4,000 launches — and the honest answer is that convergence only means something while a token is still quiet.
| Zone | Baseline | Tracked wallets ≥2 | Placebo ≥2 | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quiet |
2.74% 2.26–3.33 |
3.66% 2.53–5.28 |
3.06% 1.41–6.52 |
1.34× baseline |
| Busy |
8.99% 6.44–12.41 |
10.42% 7.39–14.48 |
10.17% 6.93–14.69 |
no signal |
Inside the quiet zone, each additional tracked wallet raises the graduation rate. The same count of random wallets does not move.
| Converging wallets | Tracked | Placebo | vs baseline | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥1 | 2.09% | 3.37% | ||
| ≥2 | 3.66% | 3.06% | ||
| ≥3 | 6.17% | 3.23% | too few | 3.39× | too few | 4.51× |
Read this honestly
On a busy launch "smart money bought it" mostly means "a lot of people bought it" — random
active wallets score the same. And where it does work, be precise about the strength of the
evidence: the quiet-zone rate separates cleanly from the baseline, but the placebo
group there is small enough that its interval still overlaps — the dose-response below is
the stronger argument, not this row. Percentages are graduation rates with 95% intervals,
not returns, and nothing here is a trading recommendation.
pump.fun trades carry the curve's reserves at
execution time, so entry cost is not modelled — it is arithmetic. On the median fresh
launch the reserves are 31.0 SOL, and buying x SOL moves the
price by exactly x / vsr.
| Entry | Size | Slippage, before anything happens |
|---|---|---|
| ~$100 | 0.5 SOL | 1.6% |
| ~$500 | 2.5 SOL | 8.1% |
| ~$1,000 | 5.0 SOL | 16.1% |
| ~$5,000 | 25.0 SOL | 80.6% |
Moving the price 10% costs 1.51 SOL. Which is the real reason a lift of 11× on paper is not a business: at any size worth trading, you are the move.
Weekly graduation rate across 3,393,331 launches. It swung 4.4× in two months, so a lift measured in one window and a lift measured in another are not comparable — ours included.
Each bar is one week ·
GET /v1/baseline
curl https://api.smugcalls.com/v1/study/activity
GET /v1/study/activitythe table above, as JSONGET /v1/study/curvegraduation vs number of converging walletsGET /v1/study/signalfiltered calls vs bare convergence vs the restGET /v1/study/launchesper-launch rows: buyers, tracked, placebo, outcomeGET /v1/study/dataset.csvthe whole thing as a spreadsheetGET /v1/baselineweekly graduation rate — the denominator movesGET /v1/cost?size_sol=5what entering actually costs, from observed reserves| Plan | Requests/day | Per-launch dataset | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anonymous | 50 | 25 rows/page | free, no signup |
| Free key | 100 | 100 rows/page | free |
| Pro | 20,000 | full 4,000 launches | $29/mo |
Aggregates stay free forever — the whole point is that you can check them.